Bouncy Perth Stadium gives South Africa the edge over India

This is the match that is shaping to be the crackerjack of Group 2, following the unprecedented high of last Sunday at the MCG. After sharing a point with Zimbabwe in Hobart due to a washout, South Africa smashed Bangladesh by 104 runs in Sydney on the back of a brutal 52-ball hundred from Rilee Roussow, while later in the day at the same venue Rohit Sharma’s Indian team coasted to a 56-run victory over Netherlands to make it two wins from two.

This has left India at the top of Group 2 with four points, South Africa at second with three and Zimbabwe at third, also with three points, but what could prove the differentiator in this pool is South Africa’s net run-rate (NRR) of 5.200, astounding given they were left frustrated in their opening game.

India will go a long way to cementing their place in the T20 World Cup semi-finals if they beat South Africa in this heavyweight clash, but for that to happen they will need to dominate arguably the best pace bowling attack in the tournament. Conditions at Perth Stadium have aided pace and bounce so far, and in this regard how India’s wobbly openers and the middle order handle a four-pronged pace unit could easily prove the defining factor on Sunday. India lost four wickets inside ten overs against Pakistan’s superb pace attack at the MCG, and then found the boundary just nine times in their first nine overs against Netherlands as they crawled to 53/1. It needed Virat Kohli and Hardik Pandya to seal an epic chase against Pakistan and Kohli and Suryakumar Yadav to get the score to 179/2 versus Netherlands.

South Africa’s terrific bowling ensemble aside, they have the in-form Quinton de Kock and Roussow, whose century was arguably the best played by a South African at a World Cup since AB de Villiers larruped 162 off 66 balls in 2015. But worryingly, the skipper Temba Bavuma cannot buy a decent score and the middle order looks a bit shaky.

 

TEAM NEWS

 

INDIA

India have an optional practice session on Saturday in Perth from 3pm local time. The management might be tempted to drop a spinner and add a fourth pace option keeping in mind the conditions at Perth Stadium, and given that in the most recent match there Pakistan did not bowl their second spinner, Mohammad Nawaz. The fourth option is Harshal Patel, who has not been in top gear of late.

India likely XI: 1 Rohit Sharma (capt), 2 KL Rahul, 3 Virat Kohli, 4 Suryakumar Yadav, 5 Hardik Pandya, 6 Dinesh Karthik (wk), 7 Axar Patel/Harshal Patel, 8 R Ashwin, 9 Bhuvneshwar Kumar, 10 Mohammed Shami, 11 Arshdeep Singh

 

SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa played two spinners against Bangladesh, but once again, considering that this is Perth it makes sense to drop Keshav Maharaj and get in the tall left-arm pacer Marco Jansen for his first match of the tournament. Jansen has troubled Kohli before, tellingly during this year’s IPL when he produced a brief spell of Test-match pace bowling, so he could be a handful in Perth. Another option is to swap Wayne Parnell for Lungi Ngidi, who is faster and bowls more accurate bouncers.

Another failure for Bavuma has increased calls for Reeza Hendricks to play at the top of the order, but once more, this looks unlikely.

 

South Africa likely XI: 1 Quinton de Kock (wk), 2 Temba Bavuma (capt), 3 Rilee Roussow, 4 Aiden Markram, 5 David Miller, 6 Tristan Stubbs, 7 Wayne Parnell/Marco Jansen, 8 Kagiso Rabada, 9 Keshav Maharaj, 10 Anrich Nortje, 11 Lungi Ngidi

 

PITCH & CONDITIONS

The forecast for Sunday is for partly cloudy conditions, but very unlikely for rains. The three Super 12 stage matches at this venue have produced surfaces on which the pacers have found bounce – particularly when Pakistan played Zimbabwe – which has made life uncomfortable for several batsmen. There is a bit of swing with the new ball, but runs are also there for the taking if batsmen chose to hit down the ground like Australia’s Marcus Stoinis did against Sri Lanka’s bowlers. The huge square boundaries at Perth Stadium mean that spinners will need to bowl lengths that force batsmen to target those sides.

 

PREDICTION

This match will be India’s stiffest test due to the quality of South Africa’s bowling and the fact that Roussow is in such strong form, having not long ago scored a century against this team. If India can keep wickets intact against the likes of Rabada, Ngidi, Nortje and the rest, then therein lies their best chance of victory. No doubt India are on a high after beating Pakistan, but it is during this match that they will severely be put under the pump. South Africa, despite a couple of batting weaknesses, should edge this game.