If its Sunday, it’s got to be India vs Pakistan … but what about La Nina?

Time was when India and Pakistan met so often in the 1980s and 1990s for ODI matches in the UAE, that Fridays became synonymous with blockbuster cricket (though, truth be told, for us Indian fans beating Pakistan on Fridays was next to impossible). Over the past several years, however, this marquee clash between the two storied rivals have more often than not took place on Sundays.

Cases in point being the final of the 2017 ICC Champions Trophy, the 2019 ODI World Cup league stage match, last year’s T20 World Cup fixture in the UAE and most recently, successive games in the 2022 Asia Cup.

But where Pakistan’s famous win in the Champions Trophy five summers ago came to be viewed as a blip owing to India’s dominance over them in ICC tournaments, the current scenario is not as predictable. India were favourites heading into the 2021 T20 World Cup, but were stunned by Shaheen Afridi’s new-ball burst and then by the opening pair of Mohammad Rizwan and Babar Azam who ended almost three decades of pain at the hands of India at World Cups. Then, after losing narrowly to Rohit Sharma’s team on another Sunday when the Asia Cup started, Babar’s team hit back a week later to squash India’s chances of making the final.

The two teams are back at it again, once more on a Sunday, and at the MCG where they started their 2015 ODI World Cup campaign on very different notes. Seven years ago, India beat Pakistan and went on to reach the semi-finals. It has been nine years since any Indian team got their hands on an ICC trophy, and this time around the two teams are in contrasting situations.

India’s batting is their undoubted strength and their bowling the clear weak area. For Pakistan, the situation is flipped. Who will emerge triumphant this Sunday? Will Shaheen Afridi reprise his heroics from a year ago and set India on the back foot once again? Will India’s batsmen rise to the challenge and go set the World Cup record back on track? Or will the expected rain dash all of our hopes and predictions and leave this to be rather soggy Sunday, instead of Super Sunday?

 

TEAM NEWS

 

 INDIA

India were slated to play two World Cup warm-ups this week, but the second was washed out to deny them a valuable final shot at fine-tuning. A bit of magic in the field from Virat Kohli and an incredible final over from Mohammed Shami – the only one he bowled in that match – got India over the line over hosts and defending champions Australia, and that result has left fans speculating what 11 their team will field against Pakistan.

Australia were well placed to win that warm-up, needing just 11 runs from six balls, before Shami – not named in India’s XI and having not bowled a ball before – delivered a stunning series of yorkers as four wickets fell off the last four balls of the match. Shami’s unprecedented success, given that his last T20I was at the 2021 T20 World Cup, as well as Harshal Patel’s five-run, double-wicket 19^th over, has perhaps changed how India will go into Sunday’s game.

India likely XI: 1 Rohit Sharma (capt), 2 KL Rahul, 3 Virat Kohli, 4 Suryakumar Yadav, 5 Hardik Pandya, 6 Dinesh Karthik (wk), 7 Axar Patel/R Ashwin, 8 Bhuvneshwar Kumar, 9 Harshal Patel/Mohammed Shami, 10 Arshdeep Singh, 11 Yuzvendra Chahal

 

PAKISTAN

Pakistan were handed a major boost ahead of their two warm-up matches versus England and Afghanistan, with 22-year-old Shaheed back after missing the Asia Cup and a home series. In his first match since July, Shaheen bowled two wicketles overs for seven runs and then against Afghanistan he claimed 2/29 from four. His return means that Mohammad Wasim will most likely make way.

Fakhar Zaman was this week bumped up from Pakistan’s reserves into their main squad, which means that Shan Masood could sit out. Haider Ali could also get the nod ahead of Khushdil Shah, leaving the revolving-door number four spot settled and the pinch-hitting duo of Shabad Khan and Mohammad Nawaz to slot down into the lower order.

Pakistan likely 11: 1 Mohammad Rizwan (wk), 2 Babar Azam (capt), 3 Fakhar Zaman, 4 Haider Ali, 5 Iftikhar Ahmed, 6 Asif Ali, 7 Shadab Khan, 8 Mohammad Nawaz, 9 Naseem Shah, 10 Haris Rauf, 11 Shaheen Afridi

 

PITCH CONDITIONS & WEATHER

Unfortunately, for most of Australia currently, La Nina raises the chances of rain and has contributed to some of the country’s wettest ever conditions. Sunday’s forecast for Melbourne is for 90% rainfall at 7pm local time, which is when India and Pakistan are scheduled to play. There are no reserve days for the T20 World Cup’s group stage, and for a match to happen on Sunday there has to be enough time for five overs per team.

At the MCG, T20 scores in the range of 160 have proven tough to chase at times. Given the amount of rain these days, wet conditions will assist pace.

 

PREDICTION

A tricky one, owing to the difference in batting and bowling on both sides as well as due to the manner in which Pakistan have won two of the last three T20Is against India. With Shaheen back, India’s problems versus qualify left-arm pace – think Amir in 2017, Boult in 2019 and Shaheen in 2021 – will once more be under scrutiny, but if the good vibes of late – that’s you, Rahul and Kohli – can be extended into this massive match, and if the weather permits, India could just edge Pakistan. In fact, the shorter the match, the better India’s chances.