I think the third T20I between India and New Zealand will present another interesting challenge, particularly when it comes to adjusting to the conditions in Wellington. The weather conditions are always a factor there, with a lot of wind historically, and I would expect that to be the case again. Both teams will have to adapt not only to the weather but also to the ground dimensions, which can be quite different from what they experienced at Hagley Oval in Christchurch.
The square boundaries at Hagley Oval are particularly long, making it a big ground in that part of the field. Wellington, however, has considerably shorter square boundaries. That difference can have a significant impact on how the bowlers approach their plans, especially the quicker bowlers, who will have to think carefully about their lengths and the areas they target.
For India, bowling has been an area where they have not been anywhere near their best so far in the series. That will be another challenge for them heading into the next game, as they look to find their best form with the ball. Given the shorter square boundaries in Wellington, I think they will have to look at bowling fuller and targeting the stumps more regularly.
When you play at a ground with short square boundaries, it becomes difficult for fast bowlers to consistently bowl into the surface unless the pitch offers enough assistance to make that approach effective. Slower balls and cutters can be useful in those circumstances, but generally, Wellington is a venue where the quicker bowlers can get a little more assistance and bounce than they might find in India.
I believe good length and fuller lengths targetted at stumps will be rewarded. The bowlers will have to make some adjustments to their plans, and I am sure Morne Morkel and the bowling group will be well aware of what is required. They will need to be in tune with the conditions and understand how best to use them.
India have already had to overcome the challenge of a demanding schedule, having travelled quickly and got the series underway without much time to settle in. Jet lag and the adjustment to the conditions could have been difficult, but I think they have adapted well. They have played some good cricket, although there are still areas they will want to improve before the third game.
India’s batting has generally been pretty good. There are still questions around the batting combination, particularly whether Vaibhav Sooryavanshi should open or come in at number three, and whether Sanju Samson should bat at number three. I have maintained my position on this throughout the series: I still think Sooryavanshi should open.
My reasoning is that I do not think he has really played in many other positions, and I believe he is most comfortable at the top of the order. I would rather see him continue in a role where he is comfortable than ask him to adjust to a different position. I also think Sanju Samson would be able to adapt to batting at number three in a much more straightforward way.
For the overall combination of the top three, I believe that would be the best way for India to go. However, I do not expect them to make that change. Samson has been doing a good job at the top, and I can understand why India might prefer to continue with the combination that has been working for them. Even so, I still feel that moving Sooryavanshi to the opening position and having Samson bat at number three would be the better option.
Another area India will want to address is their approach against spin. I think they will be looking to play spin better and find ways to rotate the
strike while remaining smart and adaptable at the crease. Mitchell Santner is an outstanding spinner, and I consider him one of the best in the game. His flight, control, deception and ability to vary his bowling make him a particularly difficult opponent.
Santner has a rare combination of qualities, and it is not easy for a batting side to play against someone of his class. India will have to be savvy in how they approach him, making sure they do not allow him to dictate the terms of the contest. I think that is something they will have discussed after the first couple of games, and improving their approach against spin could be important in the third T20I.
I also like the way India’s batting line-up is shaping up, particularly with Tilak Varma at number five. I think that is a strong combination, and I am keen on him batting in that position because it seems to work well both for him and for the team.
Tilak has a very good temperament. I remember watching him play for Mumbai Indians in the IPL, particularly during periods when the team were not performing especially well. He would often be one of the players who continued to score runs even when the rest of the team were struggling. I always felt that was something that distinguished him from some of the others.
He has a good character, a strong temperament and the ability to get the best out of himself in difficult situations. Those qualities are valuable in a batting line-up, particularly when a team needs someone to remain calm under pressure. I thought Tilak’s contribution was crucial in helping India win the game, and his role at number five is becoming a real strength for both him and the team. He brings a cool head to that position, which is important in tight situations.
Overall, I think India will be reasonably happy with how things have gone, but they will know there are one or two areas they need to improve in the third game. Their batting has shown encouraging signs, but their bowling and their ability to handle spin more effectively remain areas to watch.
For New Zealand, I would return to a point I made before the previous game: I still think Glenn Phillips should bat at number three. Daryl Mitchell was given another opportunity in the second game, but I do not think he made the most of it. I continue to believe New Zealand would look a stronger side with Phillips in the top three, and I expect their batting order to be an area they will want to improve significantly.
New Zealand have a powerful top order. Tim Seifert is a very good player, and Finn Allen is also a destructive batter. However, those players have not really got going in this series and have not been anywhere near their best. If New Zealand can get their top order firing, I think it will change the entire dynamic of the contest. They have the players capable of making a substantial impact, but they need to start delivering together.
Fielding is another area where I think New Zealand will be looking for an improvement. They are usually one of the better fielding sides in world cricket, and their fielding is not something you would normally identify as a weakness. They are generally organised and disciplined, they do not drop many catches, and they have Glenn Phillips, who I consider one of the world’s great fielders.
New Zealand are often capable of winning games through their fielding, but that has not been the case in this series. Their fielding has actually contributed to them losing a couple of games, which is unusual for a side that generally operates at such a high standard. I do not expect that trend to continue, and I think they will be keen to return to the level of fielding they are known for. Fielding becomes even more crucial in windy conditions.
There are also concerns around New Zealand’s bowling resources. I understand they have one or two injuries, with Matt Henry expected to miss the remainder of the series. I also understand Lockie Ferguson is likely to be rested before returning for the next game in Auckland. Whatever the New Zealand camp might say, I think those absences weaken the side to some extent.
However, I am a big fan of tall Kyle Jamieson, particularly in New Zealand conditions. With the extra bounce and the possibility of some movement off the surface, I think he could be a significant asset for New Zealand. Even if he comes into the side as a replacement bowler, I still consider him a very high-quality option who could cause problems for India.
His inclusion could help New Zealand compensate for some of the weakness in their seam and swing attack, although the absences of Henry and Ferguson will still be important. I think the conditions will play a pivotal role in determining how the bowling attacks perform, and New Zealand will need to make the most of whatever assistance the surface offers.
Ultimately, I am backing New Zealand to win the third T20I. Even though their bowling line-up could be slightly weaker, I think the adjustment to the conditions could work in their favour. If their top order, particularly the players who have yet to make a significant impact in the series, can fire, I believe New Zealand have a good chance of staying in the series.
For me, the key factors will be how effectively both teams adapt to Wellington’s shorter square boundaries, whether India can improve their bowling plans, and whether New Zealand’s top order can finally perform to its potential. India have shown enough with the bat to remain a strong threat, but I think New Zealand have a good opportunity to respond, and I am backing them to take it.
