The upcoming Sri Lanka vs India Test series has already been significantly affected by  injuries, with Jasprit Bumrah, Washington Sundar and Sai Sudharsan now ruled out. It is  particularly disappointing in Sudharsan’s case because he had been in good form and was  building towards an important opportunity with the Indian side. 

I am a huge fan of Sudharsan, and I know that he scored runs during India’s A series against  Sri Lanka recently. It would have been a really important series for him to continue  establishing himself and cementing his position in the top three. Unfortunately, that  opportunity is no longer available to him, and I suspect the opening created by his absence  will now go to Devdutt Padikkal. 

I would be very surprised if Padikkal does not take his place at number three. He obviously  took his opportunity in the warm-up game, and that performance should put him in a  strong position to make the final XI. Sarfaraz Khan has also been called up and has been in  excellent form in domestic cricket, so there is another option available. However, when  you look at the likely composition of India’s top order and consider the conditions expected  in the Test, Padikkal appears to be the more likely choice. 

Assuming the batting order is going to be Yashasvi Jaiswal, KL Rahul, Devdutt Padikkal,  Shubman Gill, Rishabh Pant, Dhruv Jurel and Ravindra Jadeja, there could potentially be  around four left-handers among the top seven. That becomes quite an important factor  when you consider the opposition’s spin options, particularly Prabath Jayasuriya, who I  would expect to play. 

I have not yet seen confirmation of the final squad or playing XI, but I imagine Jayasuriya  will be involved. Having a number of left-handers in India’s top order could, to some  degree, help negate some of the threat posed by a left-arm spinner like Jayasuriya. That  does not mean he will not have an impact, because on a pitch that is expected to turn  considerably, particularly as the game progresses, he will certainly have his say. 

The conditions are likely to make spin a central part of the Test match. Success in those  conditions is going to be heavily influenced by the quality of the spin attacks. That is  another reason why the composition of India’s batting order becomes significant. With  several left-handers potentially facing a left-arm spinner, there is a particular tactical  element to consider.

For that reason, I would be very surprised if Padikkal does not make the final XI. Jaiswal’s  runs in the second innings of the warm-up game should also provide him with some  confidence. He has not been on a couple of recent tours, so returning to an India tour and  finding some form again is encouraging. There is certainly a case for going with Sarfaraz  Khan as well, but personally, I would not go down that route. 

The toss could also be crucial. Looking ahead to the first Test, there is more at stake than  simply another bilateral series. World Test Championship points are on the line, which  adds another layer of importance to the match. That makes the opening Test particularly  significant for both sides. 

One positive for India is that the India A team travelled there a couple of months ago. That  means there has already been some recent exposure to the conditions. I am not  necessarily expecting Auqib Nabi and Sarash Jain to make the final XI, but having a team  play in those conditions in recent months is still useful. It means there is some experience  of the conditions and the surface within the wider group. 

When it comes to the bowling attack, I would be surprised if India do not go with  Mohammed Siraj and Prasidh Krishna alongside three spinners. At the centre of that spin  attack, obviously, will be Kuldeep Yadav and Ravindra Jadeja. I also expect Manav Suthar  to play. 

For me, though, one of the main players to focus on going into this Test is Jadeja. I still think  he is a world-class player. Obviously, he is getting older, but with that age comes greater  experience, and that experience can become particularly valuable on a pitch where the  conditions are expected to assist spin. 

Jadeja’s ability to bowl stump to stump, provide some holding ability and extract some turn  could cause a lot of problems. He can keep things really tight, build pressure and  effectively control one end. That becomes particularly valuable when you have someone  like Kuldeep operating from the other end. 

I think Jadeja and Kuldeep could form a very effective combination in these conditions.  With Suthar also providing another option, India would have plenty of variety and choices  within their spin attack. That is important because, even without Sundar and Bumrah, India  still have a bowling attack capable of causing significant problems on that pitch and in  those conditions. 

Obviously, the absence of Bumrah and Sundar is a big loss. Bumrah’s absence in particular  removes a major bowling option, while Sundar would also have offered another dimension. 

But the conditions themselves could work in India’s favour to some extent because of the  number of spin options available to them. 

Beyond the spin attack, KL Rahul is another player I would expect to play a significant role. I  think Rahul should open the innings for India in pretty much all formats. He can provide  stability at the top of the order and act as the rock around whom the other players can play. 

Rishabh Pant also gives India a huge amount of firepower in the batting line-up. When you  look across the side, they have the skills and the ability to put together a very strong  performance. There is plenty of experience as well as plenty of attacking ability within the  batting order. 

Overall, I would be surprised if India did not come out on top. They have enough quality in  both their batting and bowling to cause problems, even with some significant absences.  The recent performances in the warm-up game, particularly from players such as Padikkal,  Jaiswal and Jadeja, should also provide some confidence heading into the first Test. 

However, I do think the toss and the decision to bat first could prove to be a crucial  moment in the match. Given the expectation that the pitch will turn considerably as the  game goes on, the conditions could change significantly through the course of the Test.  That makes the toss particularly important, and the team that gets the opportunity to make  the most of the surface early on could gain a significant advantage.