T20 World Cup: Bowling a major concern, but don’t write India off

 

We are a week away from the start of the 2022 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup and for Indian fans, one sliver of good news is that in every single edition of the tournament dating back to 2007, the pre-tournament favorites have failed to get their hands on the trophy. Last year India went into the T20 World Cup in the UAE as favorites but suffered the same fate as previous pre-tournament favorites by crashing out in the group stage. A year later, almost, you won’t find many pundits inking that next to India’s name given their bowling issues. Which is, in a quirky manner, suiting them just fine.

Rohit Sharma’s team is, frankly, in the easier of the two main groups. Their competition is Pakistan, South Africa and Bangladesh as compared to Group 1 which comprises Australia, England, New Zealand and Afghanistan. From the qualifying round, two teams from two groups will progress to the main round and India will play two additional matches versus the winner of Group B and the runner-up from Group A. A cursory look at the current qualifying groups leads one to surmise that Sri Lanka should comfortably emerge on top of Group A, so India would only meet them in the semi-finals if both teams make it that far, and so it is likelier that India play Namibia and West Indies alongside their three Group 1 competitors Pakistan, South Africa and Bangladesh.

Bangladesh are having arguably their worst year as a T20I team and South Africa, already depleted without Rassie van der Dussen and Dwaine Pretorious, have batting worries. So, if India play to potential and the bowling sorts itself out, it is foreseeable that they go into the knockouts along with Pakistan, who just won a T20I series in New Zealand. But for this to happen, several factors must click.

 

THE BATTING

There is no doubt that India’s strength is their batting. A lineup featuring Rohit, KL Rahul, Virat Kohli, Suryakumar Yadav, Hardik Pandya, Rishabh Pant and Dinesh Karthik has no business not winning more series and titles. It is the bowling which is problematic. We will come to this shortly.

India in 2022 have on ten occasions reached a total of at least 190 when batting first, a feat they achieved only three times across the 2020 and 2021 seasons. This is indication enough of a marked improvement post the team’s limp exit from last year’s T20 World Cup in the UAE, as well as that an acceptance that 175 is no longer a winning score, especially with this bowling unit. Rohit has, in this regard, walked the talk and had a significant impact inside the first six overs. While it can be levelled at him that making just two half-centuries in 23 T20I innings in 2022 is not good enough, there is no denying that Rohit’s impact has been significant as an opener in delivering fast starts inside the Powerplay block.

Rahul returned to the T20I squad for the Asia Cup in September having not played a single T20I all year and took a few matches to get going, but three fifties in his last five matches indicates that he could be coming into his own. The issue with Rahul is not the talent and range of shots, but the ‘intent’ as he frequently gets bogged down when batting at the top of the innings. It often seems that Rahul is batting as if he knows his place in the team is in jeopardy, which is alarming because he has the support of the entire team and Rohit openly said how the management will play Rahul in every World Cup match. In six matches in Australia, Rahul averages 21.60 and strikes at just 112.50, so that baggage must be shed when he walks out to bat against Pakistan at the MCG on October 23.

Kohli’s return to form in the Asia Cup was a massive relief for Indian cricket fans, and since then he has managed scores of 63 and 49* alongside three poor innings. Given Kohli’s pedigree and record in Australia (average of 64.42, strike-rate 144.55) he is the best man to bat at No 3 and ‘anchor’ the innings. If India’s top three can provide good starts, especially the openers, then Suryakumar Yadav at No 4 can really be the game-changer. Ranked No 2 in the men’s ICC T20I rankings for batsmen, Suryakumar is this year’s leading run-getter in the format and recently became the fastest of all time to 1,000 runs. His range, confidence and consistency sets him apart as the team’s best batsman and despite not having played top-flight cricket in Australia, Suryakumar’s adaptability and the fact that he perforates gaps like few others in today’s game sets him for a successful time on Australia’s big grounds.

With Hardik Pandya at No 5, India have a tremendous cricketer who can tee off superbly to finish off both innings and matches. And Dinesh Karthik, at 37, has been groomed to close out matches with a few overs left. With Rishabh Pant highly unlike to crack the top six, this leaves India to play the left-hander Axar Patel at seven – as well as six, with Karthik dropping to seven – followed by four frontline bowlers. This lineup can put up big totals and chase them, but the worry is that it will be required to do so too often.

 

THE BOWLING

A bowler of Jasprit Bumrah’s value cannot be replaced and the news that Deepak Chahar was out of the reckoning with a back injury was a further setback. India have still not named their 15^th player, but the man most likely to get the nod is Mohammed Shami (Mohammed Siraj and Shardul Thakur are rumored to be in the fray but this writer can confirm that they are still in India).

Shami, it must be noted, has not played a single T20I since the 2021 World Cup. He was picked for the recent home series with Australia and South Africa but was sidelined with COVID-19 and has zero match practice mid-July when he played played for India in an ODI. Shami was good in this year’s IPL in the Powerplay, but at the death he was only used for 11 overs by his franchise and conceded runs at 9.63 per over. While it is true that Australian conditions do suit Shami’s style of bowling, when you see that he has played just 19 T20Is for India in a nine-year career and has not been deemed necessary for almost a year, one wonders what impact he can have all of a sudden.

Given the track record of Rohit and coach Rahul Dravid, familiarity and consistency will be rewarded. So, it is likely that Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Arshdeep Singh and Harshal patel form India’s frontline pace trio followed by two spinners and Pandya as the sixth bowling option. Bhuvneshwar remains India’s highest wicket-taker of 2022 but his recent performances in the last four overs is very worrying, and the same applies for Harshal who since returning from injury has conceded runs at 10.95 an over and averages 73 for his three wickets from six matches. This leaves young Arshdeep, just 13 matches old, as India’s most potent and economical slog-overs bowler. He has not played in Australia and lacks the pace to traditionally succeed there, but Arshdeep has showed in his brief international career that he can rise to every challenge. It is a lot to expect from him, but being a left-arm seamer and so effective at the backend of innings does set him aside as the best option.

Now to the spinners. Yuzvendra Chahal is India’s leading spinner in 2022 and though his recent form in T20Is does not make for good reading, he has success in Australia and legspinners are primed for a good tournament. Axar Patel is in the middle of a superb run of form but there are doubts as to whether he is an automatic starter in Australia (this might hinge on his batting). The experience of R Ashwin is thus very critical at the World Cup, especially with Bumrah not around. Ashwin’s role has shifted to more of a holding role in the middle overs as compared to a wicket-taker, which frankly is very effective given the amount of runs this bowling attack has been conceding. On Australian grounds, getting four overs out of Ashwin could potentially be match-shaping. The question is: who bowls the 18^th, 19^th and 20^th overs?

 

LIKELY XI (for first match)

1 Rohit Sharma (capt), 2 KL Rahul, 3 Virat Kohli, 4 Suryakumar Yadav, 5 Hardik Pandya, 6 Dinesh Karthik (wk), 7 Axar Patel, 8 R Ashwin, 9 Bhuvneshwar Kumar, 10 Harshal Patel, 11 Arshdeep Singh

 

PREDICTION

If India’s batting might can collectively deliver, this will be an exhilarating team to follow. Imagine Rohit, Rahul, Kohli, Suryakumar, Pandya and Karthik doing what they can do, and the senses are tingled. But the bowling is very problematic, and thus it will need something wholly unexpected to drag this team into the final. Is it possible? Of course, because this bowling attack does not lack for experience and talent. Some strong totals, improved fielding and a drop of luck here and there and India could upend predictions and lift the World Cup. And not being favorites might actually work out for India.