Here’s a hypothetical scenario for you. Let’s say that come the deadline for competing nations to submit their final squads for the 2024 T20 World Cup, the BCCI selectors go back to any or all of Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli and KL Rahul for the T20 World Cup. Add in the impending return of Hardik Pandya from an 18-week rehabilitation program as well as that of Jasprit Bumrah, and you are faced with a situation in which five places, potentially, have to be vacated from the current T20I setup.

Which five would these be?

Before you start to think of any names, chew on this fact: none of Rohit, Kohli or Rahul has played a T20I since November 10, 2022 when India were dumped out of the previous World Cup by eventual winners. In the time since, the Indian team has played eight bilateral T20I series and tried out a roster of fringe players, both young and experienced on the domestic and IPL circuits.

So then, are we assuming that the BCCI has moved on from Rohit, Kohli and Rahul from T20Is, or that the trio will indeed come into reckoning for the World Cup, and that all the opportunities handed out in the interim period will have amounted to little but stop-gap trials? We won’t know for a few more months, but for now let us assume that the BCCI will value experience and seniority for the World Cup.

If indeed Rohit returns, one opener will have to make way. Will it be Shubman Gill, who finished the year with 316 runs at an average of 26.33 and a strike-rate of 146.97? Or will it be the left-hander Yashasvi Jaiswal, who is striking at 159.25 after 14 career innings in 2023? Or could it be Ruturaj Gaikwad, who is India’s third-highest run-getter in T20Is this year (365 runs at 60.83, strike-rate 147.17, from just nine innings) but who did not play once in South Africa? One of these three could open with Rohit if he returns for the T20 World Cup, unless the selectors decide to give Ishan Kishan another shot and have him double-up as wicketkeeper.

If Kohli returns, he will only bat at one-down. This would merit a serious reshuffle in the batting order, with Shreyas Iyer bunted from three to five because Suryakumar Yadav is locked in at four. But now, if Rahul is also recalled, and has the wicketkeeper tag attached to his name, does he not bat at five? How then does Iyer, who has played just twice this year, keep his spot in the 11? And then Pandya the allrounder has to slot in at six, before the spin-bowling allrounder and four bowlers to follow, right?

If this scenario plays out – and we surely cannot assume it will not until the BCCI comes out with a definite statement on Rohit, Kohli and Rahul in T20Is – it would not only impact the balance of the current team but also be extremely harsh on the players who have done so well in the past year. The likes of Jaiswal, Gaikwad, Tilak Varma, Rinku Singh and Jitesh Sharma, in particular.

Thus, what can we take away from India’s short T20I series in South Africa? 

These three matches were the team’s penultimate assignment in T20Is before the World Cup in June – only three matches remain, at home against Afghanistan, in January – and with the first one washed out completely, it left only two opportunities from which to glean something. India fielded the same team in both games, beat South Africa in the decider by a massive 106 runs to level the series 1-1 and now here we are, wondering how many members of this squad will make it to the T20 World Cup.

Barring Suryakumar Yadav, whose fourth T20I century set up India’s win on Thursday, there are no certainties from the current squad. And herein lies the talking point from India’s T20I selections for this series.

Jaiswal followed a duck with a robust 60 off 41 deliveries in the decider, an innings that contained six fours and three sixes. At the end of India’s T20I run in 2023, the 21-year-old sits at second on the run chart with 430 at 33.07, including a century and three fifties. Based on stats, Jaiswal seems the opener least likely to be dropped should the selectors bring back Rohit.

In the second T20I, Rinku top-scored with 68 not out from 39 deliveries to take his T20I average of 82.66 and strike-rate to 183.70. In the third, he walked out to bat with just over five overs remaining and managed 14 off 10 balls. He ends 2023 with a T20I batting average of 65.50 and a strike-rate of 180.68.

Let’s talk about Rinku for a moment. The left-hander from Uttar Pradesh made his name on the domestic front and earlier this year came into national reckoning after a superb run for Kolkata Knight Riders in the IPL. In his debut series in Ireland, as well as at the Asian Games and then against Australia at home and now in South Africa, Rinku has continued to impress with his finishing skills. And yet, we are looking at a situation in which the 26-year-old runs drinks at the World Cup if the BCCI selectors recall Rohit, Kohli and Rahul.

The same would be the case for Varma, who has made 310 runs at 34.44 and a strike-rate of 141.55 in 14 innings this year. And if Rahul does get recalled, Iyer might even drop out of the middle order entirely.

If reports of Rahul wanting to bat in the middle order for Lucknow Super Giants in IPL 2024 are to be believed, then one spot in the current T20I squad will in all likelihood be vacated. Surprisingly, Rahul has been picked as one of two designated wicketkeepers for the two Test matches in South Africa, which mark the first instance in his 47-match career that this has happened. Given how he did the job in the ODI World Cup, it is not at all out of the realm of thinking that the selectors recall Rahul as a wicketkeeper-batsman, which could spell curtains for Jitesh.

The 30-year-old has batted in the middle order in domestic cricket and in the IPL, most noticeably having two good seasons for Punjab Kings to earn a call-up to India’s T20I squad. Given that Kishan primarily bats in the top three, he could be retained for the World Cup, but if Rahul slots back 18 months from his previous T20I appearance, and that too as a wicketkeeping option, Jitesh would be the man to make way. Unfortunate and unfair one a finisher striking at 155 in T20Is.

The bowling is equally muddling when you look at India’s plans – or lack of them – for the World Cup. The top-ranked T20I bowler, Ravi Bishnoi, must be wondering what he did wrong after being named Player of the Series against Australia. Bishnoi warmed the bench in South Africa and looked on as Kuldeep Yadav claimed five wickets in the final match. Does this mean that both wrist-spinners might go to the West Indies? Has Ravindra Jadeja (seven wickets in 11 T20Is in the past two years, at 36.14 each) done enough to keep out Axar Patel, who has taken 32 wickets in the past 24 months?

Like Surya, the only bowler certain for the World Cup is Bumrah. From the current T20I squad, we can assume that Mohammed Siraj and Arshdeep Singh will be retained, so that leaves one of Deepak Chahar and Mukesh Kumar to be dropped to accommodate Bumrah. Or not, because it would surprise nobody if Mohammed Shami suddenly springs back into contention with a few wickets in the first month of the IPL.

Three T20Is remain for India, against Afghanistan, before the IPL, and one gets the feeling that all these performances in bilateral series might just be reduced to the background by the BCCI selectors when time comes to name the World Cup squad.