Borussia Dortmund vs. Mainz Preview

Borussia Dortmund clashes with Mainz in what promises to be a very entertaining Bundesliga game on Sunday. Borussia Dortmund is coming off a 2-0 road loss against RB Leipzig on March 15 while Mainz had a 2-2 home draw against SC Freiburg on March 15.

Borussia Dortmund is in 11th place in the Bundesliga standings with 35 points in 26 games while Mainz is in third place with 45 points in 26 games.  

The player to watch in this game is Serhou Guirassy, who has 14 goals and one assist in 23 Bundesliga games this season. AccuScore gives Serhou Guirassy a 70.86 percent chance to score against Mainz. He has 39 SCA and 5 GCA in 23 Bundesliga games this season.   

FBRef defines SCA as “the two offensive actions leading directly to a shot, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls.” GCA is “the two offensive actions leading directly to a goal, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls.” Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup. 

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)

• Borussia Dortmund 1.71
• Mainz 4.50
• Draw: 4.00

Spread

• Borussia Dortmund -0.5, -1 (1.90)
• Mainz +0.5, +1 (1.91)

Total

• Over 2.5, 3 (1.87)
• Under 2.5, 3 (1.92)

Key Points to Consider

Head-to-Head: These two sides last matched up in Bundesliga action on November 9 and Mainz won 3-1. 

Projected Leaders

For Borussia Dortmund, Serhou Guirassy has a 70.86 percent chance to score. He averages 7.7 shots overall per sim, 4.28 shots on goal per and 1.2 goals per sim.

For Mainz, Jonathan Burkardt has a 47.74 percent chance to net the ball. He averages 1.43 shots overall per sim, 0.81 shots on goal per and 0.64 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Borussia Dortmund 1.71

Two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick on Borussia Dortmund in this one. Average score in simulations is Borussia Dortmund 1.77 to Mainz 1.5.